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Can the NDP do better than the Liberals in Quebec?
It has been said, and it may not be completely accurate, but it is still true, that the New Democratic Party is the Harper government’s worst nightmare. When Stephen Harper and his Conservative Party of Canada was elected on Oct. 14, 2011, they received just 43% of the popular vote, the lowest percentage of the three major parties in any federal election since 1921.
In a close election, the winners always have to take a long look at the losers’ base. In Quebec, where the NDP won 54 of the 75 seats, the Liberals received just 36.7% of the vote — a decline of more than four points.
Quebec’s voters, on the whole, are more supportive of left-leaning parties — the Bloc Quebecois won just under a third of the vote — but some of the Liberals’ supporters cast their ballots for the NDP.
If the BQ had done better and the NDP had performed worse, the outcome of the election would not have changed. But the reverse happened. The big part of the popular vote went to the NDP, and they won more seats in Quebec than they did in the last election. It remains to be seen whether the NDP will have the same sort of success in Ontario, where they won just 20 seats.
So what was it that caused the decline in support for the Liberal Party in Quebec? There are two possible explanations. The first is the issue of sovereignty. Quebecers are divided between those who want to give up their right to have their own currency, and those who favour holding on to the right to do that, and keeping the Canadian dollar. Since the retirement of Paul Martin as Liberal leader, and the replacement of his successor Michael Ignatieff with the popular Liberal MP, Deborah Coyne, the federal Liberals have been quietly working to convince Quebec voters that they support keeping the Canadian dollar.
So why did the Liberals achieve such poor results in Quebec if they had nothing to be ashamed of on this issue? The Liberal Party of Canada has too much baggage in Quebec. The Liberal Party was the one that introduced the “24-month rule” of giving Quebeckers one referendum every
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